Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 0.019972 0.022628 0.025509 0.028868 0.032678 0.036866 0.041821
2025-08-03 0.015509 0.019094 0.023320 0.028673 0.035278 0.043173 0.053342
2025-08-10 0.013082 0.017053 0.022006 0.028648 0.037337 0.048341 0.063374
2025-08-17 0.011191 0.015281 0.020625 0.028134 0.038436 0.052116 0.071729
2025-08-24 0.010043 0.014277 0.020037 0.028465 0.040518 0.057198 0.082143
2025-08-31 0.008961 0.013205 0.019188 0.028265 0.041738 0.061082 0.091127
2025-09-07 0.008309 0.012654 0.018984 0.028911 0.044158 0.066805 0.103226
2025-09-14 0.007354 0.011540 0.017826 0.027987 0.044088 0.068760 0.109727
2025-09-21 0.006675 0.010774 0.017103 0.027632 0.044810 0.071915 0.118293
2025-09-28 0.005982 0.009912 0.016144 0.026789 0.044643 0.073597 0.124558
2025-10-05 0.005763 0.009795 0.016353 0.027851 0.047654 0.080638 0.140309
2025-10-12 0.005498 0.009573 0.016363 0.028565 0.050120 0.086943 0.155326
2025-10-19 0.005266 0.009395 0.016444 0.029428 0.052959 0.094198 0.172831
2025-10-26 0.004877 0.008907 0.015949 0.029232 0.053902 0.098217 0.184891
2025-11-02 0.004556 0.008508 0.015572 0.029206 0.055135 0.102828 0.198428
2025-11-09 0.004195 0.008004 0.014960 0.028682 0.055375 0.105602 0.208678
2025-11-16 0.003985 0.007765 0.014813 0.029019 0.057276 0.111642 0.225823
2025-11-23 0.003725 0.007405 0.014407 0.028815 0.058090 0.115633 0.239203
2025-11-30 0.003590 0.007279 0.014439 0.029475 0.060674 0.123310 0.260806
2025-12-07 0.003286 0.006787 0.013711 0.028532 0.059900 0.124141 0.268110
2025-12-14 0.003070 0.006459 0.013284 0.028170 0.060294 0.127382 0.280827
2025-12-21 0.002823 0.006045 0.012648 0.027311 0.059553 0.128170 0.288224
2025-12-28 0.002781 0.006061 0.012907 0.028393 0.063106 0.138418 0.317664